Health economic evaluation of strategies to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul disease focus of Chad.

Human African trypanosomiasis, caused by the gambiense subspecies of Trypanosoma brucei (gHAT), is a deadly parasitic disease transmitted by tsetse. Partners worldwide have stepped up efforts to eliminate the disease, and the Chadian government has focused on the previously high-prevalence setting of Mandoul. In this study, we evaluate the economic efficiency of the intensified strategy that was put in place in 2014 aimed at interrupting the transmission of gHAT, and we make recommendations on the best way forward based on both epidemiological projections and cost-effectiveness. In our analysis, we use a dynamic transmission model fit to epidemiological data from Mandoul to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combinations of active screening, improved passive screening (defined as an expansion of the number of health posts capable of screening for gHAT), and vector control activities (the deployment of Tiny Targets to control the tsetse vector). For cost-effectiveness analyses, our primary outcome is disease burden, denominated in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and costs, denominated in 2020 US$. Although active and passive screening have enabled more rapid diagnosis and accessible treatment in Mandoul, the addition of vector control provided good value-for-money (at less than $750/DALY averted) which substantially increased the probability of reaching the 2030 elimination target for gHAT as set by the World Health Organization. Our transmission modelling and economic evaluation suggest that the gains that have been made could be maintained by passive screening. Our analysis speaks to comparative efficiency, and it does not take into account all possible considerations; for instance, any cessation of ongoing active screening should first consider that substantial surveillance activities will be critical to verify the elimination of transmission and to protect against the possible importation of infection from neighbouring endemic foci.

Estimating the burden of multiple endemic diseases and health conditions using Bayes' Theorem: A conditional probability model applied to UK dairy cattle.

The Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) is an international collaboration aiming, in part, to measure and improve societal outcomes from livestock. One GBADs objective is to estimate the economic impact of endemic diseases in livestock. However, if individual disease impact estimates are linearly aggregated without consideration for associations among diseases, there is the potential to double count impacts, overestimating the total burden. Accordingly, the authors propose a method to adjust an array of individual disease impact estimates so that they may be aggregated without overlap. Using Bayes' Theorem, conditional probabilities were derived from inter-disease odds ratios in the literature. These conditional probabilities were used to calculate the excess probability of disease among animals with associated conditions, or the probability of disease overlap given the odds of coinfection, which were then used to adjust disease impact estimates so that they may be aggregated. The aggregate impacts, or the yield, fertility, and mortality gaps due to disease, were then attributed and valued, generating disease-specific losses. The approach was illustrated using an example dairy cattle system with input values and supporting parameters from the UK, with 13 diseases and health conditions endemic to UK dairy cattle: cystic ovary, disease caused by gastrointestinal nematodes, displaced abomasum, dystocia, fasciolosis, lameness, mastitis, metritis, milk fever, neosporosis, paratuberculosis, retained placenta, and subclinical ketosis. The diseases and conditions modelled resulted in total adjusted losses of £ 404/cow/year, equivalent to herd-level losses of £ 60,000/year. Unadjusted aggregation methods suggested losses 14-61% greater. Although lameness was identified as the costliest condition (28% of total losses), variations in the prevalence of fasciolosis, neosporosis, and paratuberculosis (only a combined 22% of total losses) were nearly as impactful individually as variations in the prevalence of lameness. The results suggest that from a disease control policy perspective, the costliness of a disease may not always be the best indicator of the investment its control warrants; the costliness rankings varied across approaches and total losses were found to be surprisingly sensitive to variations in the prevalence of relatively uncostly diseases. This approach allows for disease impact estimates to be aggregated without double counting. It can be applied to any livestock system in any region with any set of endemic diseases, and can be updated as new prevalence, impact, and disease association data become available. This approach also provides researchers and policymakers an alternative tool to rank prevention priorities.

The cost of tsetse control using 'Tiny Targets' in the sleeping sickness endemic forest area of Bonon in Côte d'Ivoire: Implications for comparing costs across different settings.

BACKGROUND: Work to control the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), or sleeping sickness, is now directed towards ending transmission of the parasite by 2030. In order to supplement gHAT case-finding and treatment, since 2011 tsetse control has been implemented using Tiny Targets in a number of gHAT foci. As this intervention is extended to new foci, it is vital to understand the costs involved. Costs have already been analysed for the foci of Arua in Uganda and Mandoul in Chad. This paper examines the costs of controlling Glossina palpalis palpalis in the focus of Bonon in Côte d'Ivoire from 2016 to 2017. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Some 2000 targets were placed throughout the main gHAT transmission area of 130 km2 at a density of 14.9 per km2. The average annual cost was USD 0.5 per person protected, USD 31.6 per target deployed of which 12% was the cost of the target itself, or USD 471.2 per km2 protected. Broken down by activity, 54% was for deployment and maintenance of targets, 34% for tsetse surveys/monitoring and 12% for sensitising populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The cost of tsetse control per km2 of the gHAT focus protected in Bonon was more expensive than in Chad or Uganda, while the cost per km2 treated, that is the area where the targets were actually deployed, was cheaper. Per person protected, the Bonon cost fell between the two, with Uganda cheaper and Chad more expensive. In Bonon, targets were deployed throughout the protected area, because G. p. palpalis was present everywhere, whereas in Chad and Uganda G. fuscipes fuscipes was found only the riverine fringing vegetation. Thus, differences between gHAT foci, in terms of tsetse ecology and human geography, impact on the cost-effectiveness of tsetse control. It also demonstrates the need to take into account both the area treated and protected alongside other impact indicators, such as the cost per person protected.

Delivering 'tiny targets' in a remote region of southern Chad: a cost analysis of tsetse control in the Mandoul sleeping sickness focus.

BACKGROUND: Since 2012, the World Health Organisation and the countries affected by the Gambian form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) have been committed to eliminating the disease, primarily through active case-finding and treatment. To interrupt transmission of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense and move more rapidly towards elimination, it was decided to add vector control using 'tiny targets'. Chad's Mandoul HAT focus extends over 840 km2, with a human population of 39,000 as well as 14,000 cattle and 3000 pigs. Some 2700 tiny targets were deployed annually from 2014 onwards. METHODS: A protocol was developed for the routine collection of tsetse control costs during all field missions. This was implemented throughout 2015 and 2016, and combined with the recorded costs of the preliminary survey and sensitisation activities. The objective was to calculate the full costs at local prices in Chad. Costs were adjusted to remove research components and to ensure that items outside the project budget lines were included, such as administrative overheads and a share of staff salaries. RESULTS: Targets were deployed at about 60 per linear km of riverine tsetse habitat. The average annual cost of the operation was USD 56,113, working out at USD 66.8 per km2 protected and USD 1.4 per person protected. Of this, 12.8% was an annual share of the initial tsetse survey, 40.6% for regular tsetse monitoring undertaken three times a year, 36.8% for target deployment and checking and 9.8% for sensitisation of local populations. Targets accounted for 8.3% of the cost, and the cost of delivering a target was USD 19.0 per target deployed. CONCLUSIONS: This study has confirmed that tiny targets provide a consistently low cost option for controlling tsetse in gambiense HAT foci. Although the study area is remote with a tsetse habitat characterised by wide river marshes, the costs were similar to those of tiny target work in Uganda, with some differences, in particular a higher cost per target delivered. As was the case in Uganda, the cost was between a quarter and a third that of historical target operations using full size targets or traps.

zDALY: An adjusted indicator to estimate the burden of zoonotic diseases.

The burden of human diseases in populations, or for an individual, is frequently estimated in terms of one of a number of Health Adjusted Life Years (HALYs). The Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is a widely accepted HALY metric and is used by the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease studies. Many human diseases are of animal origin and often cause ill health and production losses in domestic animals. The economic losses due to disease in animals are usually estimated in monetary terms. The monetary impact on animal health is not compatible with HALY approaches used to measure the impact on human health. To estimate the societal burden of zoonotic diseases that have substantial human and animal disease burden we propose methodology which can be accommodated within the DALY framework. Monetary losses due to the animal disease component of a zoonotic disease can be converted to an equivalent metric using a local gross national income per capita deflator. This essentially gives animal production losses a time trade-off for human life years. This is the time required to earn the income needed to replace that financial loss. This can then be assigned a DALY equivalent, termed animal loss equivalents (ALE), and added to the DALY associated with human ill health to give a modified DALY. This is referred to as the "zDALY". ALEs could also be estimated using willingness-to-pay for animal health or survey tools to estimate the replacement time value for animals with high societal or emotional value (for example pets) that cannot be calculated directly using monetary worth. Thus the zDALY estimates the impact of a zoonotic disease to animal and human health. The losses due to the animal disease component of the modified DALY are straightforward to calculate. A number of worked examples such as echinococcosis, brucellosis, Q fever and cysticercosis from a diverse spectrum of countries with different levels of economic development illustrate the use of the zDALY indicator.

Patterns of passage into protected areas: Drivers and outcomes of Fulani immigration, settlement and integration into the Kachia Grazing Reserve, northwest Nigeria.

Increasing land use and associated competition for natural resources in the wake of high human and livestock population pressures have been major challenges confronting pastoralists of West Africa. This is especially true in Nigeria where Fulani make up 4% of the national population and prevailing national insecurity issues are impacting on pastoral livelihoods, including violent conflicts over land and ethnic, religious and political disparities. This study examined the dynamics of immigration within the Kachia Grazing Reserve (KGR), an exclusively Fulani pastoralist community in Kaduna State, northwest Nigeria, prompted by concerns from both the farming communities and the authorities about mounting pressure on existing limited resources, particularly in regard to availability of cattle grazing resources. Drawing from a household census conducted in 2011 and employing a range of qualitative methods (focus group discussions and key informant interviews), this study explored the drivers and consequences of immigration and subsequent integration within the KGR community. The study revealed two types of immigration: a steady trickle of pastoralists migrating to the reserve to settle and acquire land, secure from the stresses of competition from cultivators, and the sudden influx of internally displaced persons fleeing violent clashes in their areas of origin. Population pressure within the reserve has risen steadily over the past three decades, such that it is severely overgrazed (as evidenced by reports from the KGR community that the animals run short of pasture even during the wet season due to desertification and the spread of non-edible weeds). The newer immigrants, fleeing conflict, tended to arrive in the reserve with significantly larger herds than those kept by established residents. Pastoralists in the reserve have been forced back into the practice of seasonal transhumance in both wet and dry seasons to support their herds, with all the attendant risks of theft, clashes with cultivators and increased disease transmission.

Shifting livelihood strategies in northern Nigeria - extensified production and livelihood diversification amongst Fulani pastoralists.

This paper presents an in-depth investigation of the livelihood strategies of Fulani pastoralists in north central Nigeria. Results show a diversified crop-livestock system aimed at spreading risk and reducing cattle offtake, adapted to natural resource competition and insecurity by extensification, with further diversification into off-farm activities to spread risk, increase livelihood security and capture opportunities. However, significant costs were associated with extensification, and integration of crop and livestock enterprises was limited. Mean total income per capita in the study area was $554 or $1.52/person/day with 42% of households earning less than 1.25/person/day. Income levels were positively correlated with income diversity and price received per animal sold, rather than herd size. The outcomes of this livelihood strategy were favourable across the whole community, but when individual households are considered, there was evidence of moderate economic inequality in total income, cash income and herd size (Gini coefficient 0.32, 0.35 and 0.43 respectively). The poorest households were quite vulnerable, with low assets, income and income diversity. Implications for sustainability are discussed given the likelihood that the negative trends of reduced access to natural resources and insecurity will continue.

Wealth, household heterogeneity and livelihood diversification of Fulani pastoralists in the Kachia Grazing Reserve, northern Nigeria, during a period of social transition.

BACKGROUND: A mixed methods study was undertaken in the Kachia Grazing Reserve of northern Nigeria. Surveys in March, June and October 2011 included focus group discussions, key informant and in-depth household interviews, concerning livelihood practices, animal health, ownership, and productivity. In May 2011, 249 Fulani families fleeing post-election violence entered the reserve with their livestock, increasing the number of households by one third. RESULTS: Despite being settled within a grazing reserve, over half of households sent all their cattle away on seasonal transhumance and another third sent some away. Cattle accounted for 96% of total tropical livestock units (TLU), of which 26% were cattle kept permanently outside the reserve. While all households cited livestock as their main source of income, 90% grew crops and 55% derived income from off-farm activities. A multiple correspondence analysis showed that for each extra member of a household its TLU value increased by 2.0 [95% CI, 1.4-2.7], while for each additional marriage its TLU increased by 15.7 [95% CI, 7.1-24.3]. A strong association was also observed between small herds, small households with only one wife, alongside marked geographical wealth differences within the reserve. New immigrant families had larger household sizes (33) and livestock holdings (122 TLU) than old settlers (22 people and 67 TLU). Prior to the mass immigration, the distribution of TLU per person was unimodal: 41% of households were classified as 'poor' and 27% as 'medium', whereas post-immigration it was bi-modal, with 26% classified as 'very poor' and 28% as 'medium'. CONCLUSIONS: While cattle remain the principal source of Fulani income and wealth, the inhabitants of Kachia Grazing Reserve have diversified their livelihood strategies to respond to changing circumstances and stress, especially the limited availability of grazing within the reserve and political insecurity outside, resulting in continued transhumance, the maintenance of smaller livestock holdings and pushing households into poverty.

Cost analysis of options for management of African Animal Trypanosomiasis using interventions targeted at cattle in Tororo District; south-eastern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Tsetse-transmitted African trypanosomes cause both nagana (African animal Trypanosomiasis-AAT) and sleeping sickness (human African Trypanosomiasis - HAT) across Sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and chemotherapy are the contemporary methods of tsetse and trypanosomiasis control in this region. In most African countries, including Uganda, veterinary services have been decentralised and privatised. As a result, livestock keepers meet the costs of most of these services. To be sustainable, AAT control programs need to tailor tsetse control to the inelastic budgets of resource-poor small scale farmers. To guide the process of tsetse and AAT control toolkit selection, that now, more than ever before, needs to optimise resources, the costs of different tsetse and trypanosomiasis control options need to be determined. METHODS: A detailed costing of the restricted application protocol (RAP) for African trypanosomiasis control in Tororo District was undertaken between June 2012 and December 2013. A full cost calculation approach was used; including all overheads, delivery costs, depreciation and netting out transfer payments to calculate the economic (societal) cost of the intervention. Calculations were undertaken in Microsoft Excel without incorporating probabilistic elements. RESULTS: The cost of delivering RAP to the project was US$ 6.89 per animal per year while that of 4 doses of a curative trypanocide per animal per year was US$ 5.69. However, effective tsetse control does not require the application of RAP to all animals. Protecting cattle from trypanosome infections by spraying 25%, 50% or 75% of all cattle in a village costs US$ 1.72, 3.45 and 5.17 per animal per year respectively. Alternatively, a year of a single dose of curative or prophylactic trypanocide treatment plus 50% RAP would cost US$ 4.87 and US$ 5.23 per animal per year. Pyrethroid insecticides and trypanocides cost 22.4 and 39.1% of the cost of RAP and chemotherapy respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Cost analyses of low cost tsetse control options should include full delivery costs since they constitute 77.6% of all project costs. The relatively low cost of RAP for AAT control and its collateral impact on tick control make it an attractive option for livestock management by smallholder livestock keepers.

Costs of using "tiny targets" to control Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, a vector of gambiense sleeping sickness in Arua District of Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the relative effectiveness of tsetse control methods, their costs need to be analysed alongside their impact on tsetse populations. Very little has been published on the costs of methods specifically targeting human African trypanosomiasis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In northern Uganda, a 250 km2 field trial was undertaken using small (0.5 X 0.25 m) insecticide-treated targets ("tiny targets"). Detailed cost recording accompanied every phase of the work. Costs were calculated for this operation as if managed by the Ugandan vector control services: removing purely research components of the work and applying local salaries. This calculation assumed that all resources are fully used, with no spare capacity. The full cost of the operation was assessed at USD 85.4 per km2, of which USD 55.7 or 65.2% were field costs, made up of three component activities (target deployment: 34.5%, trap monitoring: 10.6% and target maintenance: 20.1%). The remaining USD 29.7 or 34.8% of the costs were for preliminary studies and administration (tsetse surveys: 6.0%, sensitisation of local populations: 18.6% and office support: 10.2%). Targets accounted for only 12.9% of the total cost, other important cost components were labour (24.1%) and transport (34.6%). DISCUSSION: Comparison with the updated cost of historical HAT vector control projects and recent estimates indicates that this work represents a major reduction in cost levels. This is attributed not just to the low unit cost of tiny targets but also to the organisation of delivery, using local labour with bicycles or motorcycles. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken, investigating key prices and assumptions. It is believed that these costs are generalizable to other HAT foci, although in more remote areas, with denser vegetation and fewer people, costs would increase, as would be the case for other tsetse control techniques.

Social factors affecting seasonal variation in bovine trypanosomiasis on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: African Animal Trypanosomiasis (AAT) is a widespread disease of livestock in Nigeria and presents a major constraint to rural economic development. The Jos Plateau was considered free from tsetse flies and the trypanosomes they transmit due to its high altitude and this trypanosomiasis free status attracted large numbers of cattle-keeping pastoralists to the area. The Jos Plateau now plays a major role in the national cattle industry in Nigeria, accommodating approximately 7% of the national herd, supporting 300,000 pastoralists and over one million cattle. During the past two decades tsetse flies have invaded the Jos Plateau and animal trypanosomiasis has become a significant problem for livestock keepers. Here we investigate the epidemiology of trypanosomiasis as a re-emerging disease on the Plateau, examining the social factors that influence prevalence and seasonal variation of bovine trypanosomiasis. METHODS: In 2008 a longitudinal two-stage cluster survey was undertaken on the Jos Plateau. Cattle were sampled in the dry, early wet and late wet seasons. Parasite identification was undertaken using species-specific polymerase chain reactions to determine the prevalence and distribution of bovine trypanosomiasis. Participatory rural appraisal was also conducted to determine knowledge, attitudes and practices concerning animal husbandry and disease control. RESULTS: Significant seasonal variation between the dry season and late wet season was recorded across the Jos Plateau, consistent with expected variation in tsetse populations. However, marked seasonal variations were also observed at village level to create 3 distinct groups: Group 1 in which 50% of villages followed the general pattern of low prevalence in the dry season and high prevalence in the wet season; Group 2 in which 16.7% of villages showed no seasonal variation and Group 3 in which 33.3% of villages showed greater disease prevalence in the dry season than in the wet season. CONCLUSIONS: There was high seasonal variation at the village level determined by management as well as climatic factors. The growing influence of management factors on the epidemiology of trypanosomiasis highlights the impact of recent changes in land use and natural resource competition on animal husbandry decisions in the extensive pastoral production system.

[The efficiency of different detection strategies of human African trypanosomiasis by T. b. gambiense]. / Efficience de differentes strategies de detection de la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine aT. b. gambiense.

INTRODUCTION: Population screening for human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) is often based on a combination of two screening tests: lymph node palpation (LN) and card agglutination test for trypanosomiasis (CATT). This decision analysis compared the efficiency of three alternative detection strategies: screening by LN only, CATT only and their combination (LN and CATT). METHOD: An HAT detection strategy was defined as the sequence of screening and confirmation. Efficacy was evaluated in terms of lives saved. The cost of screening and confirmation tests was estimated in US$. The different parameters in the decision tree were based on published literature and observations of the HAT control programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on those parameters subject to uncertainty. RESULTS: The cost-effectiveness of a detection strategy based on CATT was US $125 per life saved, compared with US $517 for LN and US $452 for the combined. Marginal cost to add LN to CATT only was between US $1225 and US $5000 per life saved. Sensitivity analysis shows that these results are robust to variation. DISCUSSION: The CATT strategy was the most efficient. None of the strategies was able to avoid more than 60% of HAT deaths. This moderate efficacy is due to the low sensitivity of the confirmatory (diagnostic) tests. Substantial efficiency gains can be obtained by adopting a CATT only strategy and resources can be better allocated to more sensitive confirmatory tests or to increasing the coverage of populations at risk.